The hottest McKinsey automation will increase glob

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McKinsey: automation will increase global productivity by 0.8% to 1.4% a year

not long ago, the master of artificial intelligence program (Master) won the top go players in China, Japan and South Korea with an unbeaten record of 60 games on the online go game platform. People exclaim that an era is coming, and the fear of being robbed of their jobs by robots seems to be getting closer and closer

on January 13, McKinsey Global Research Institute released a research report that although a large part of standardized and repetitive work types will be replaced, automation technologies, including robotics, artificial intelligence and machine learning, will be able to release people's personal strengths (such as communication, creative activities) and create more different types of work and employment opportunities in the future; It will enable the world to better face the challenges of aging and maintain economic growth

according to the scenario prediction model established by McKinsey, automation technology is expected to increase global productivity by 0.8% to 1.4% annually in the next few decades

the report analyzed more than 2000 work contents covered by more than 800 occupations. It found that although less than 5% of occupations can achieve full automation by improving existing technology, it involves $12 trillion in salary expenses; However, nearly 60% of the occupations or industries involved in 30% of the work content can be automated, which shows that there are more occupations that have undergone qualitative changes due to automation than those that have disappeared due to automation

obviously, automation technology can help human beings reduce errors in work, improve quality and speed, and in some cases, automation can even create achievements beyond human ability. After losing to the master, Ke Jie, a Chinese go professional nineteenthal player, sent out a Weibo sigh: human beings have evolved for thousands of years, but the computer tells us that human beings are all wrong, indicating that they have been inspired and hope to learn from it

Ni Yili, a senior director of McKinsey Hong Kong, said at the meeting on January 12 that the science fiction plot has become a reality, but the implementation of automation can not rise to the sky step by step. It is estimated that it will take decades to develop fully, so we need to think about the problem of career reconfiguration, not mass unemployment

he said that they studied the global economic growth in the past 50 years and believed that 1.7% of the average annual global economic growth of 3.5% during this period benefited from the demographic dividend, while the other 1.8% came from the improvement of productivity. Under the influence of the current slowdown in economic growth and weak productivity improvement, many countries are still facing the problem of aging. It is believed that automation technology can greatly help solve the problem of aging and achieve economic development goals

an example is the continuous investment of international venture capital funds in artificial intelligence technology in the field of health care. According to CB insights, the company is forming pre impregnated fiber structure. In 2011, less than 10 startups in this field were favored by venture capital. In 2015, this number increased to 60, involving an investment of about $262million. In the first half of 2016, another 40 venture capital investments followed up, including the new copper alloy material developed by the healthy drinking path Guoliang copper material supported by IBM supercomputer Watson, which has reached the level of silver in terms of thermal conductivity, and the $40million e-round financing obtained by genomics

the jobs most vulnerable to the impact of automation technology are physical labor in a highly stable and predictable environment, as well as data collection and processing, such as many manufacturing, catering and other industries; Geographically, China, India, Japan and the United States were the hardest hit. In China and India, 394million and 233million people are engaged in jobs that may be optimized by automation technology, involving $2.3 trillion and $0.4 trillion in compensation; In the United States, 60million people are engaged in such jobs, involving $2.5 trillion in salary expenses

according to the introduction, the three countries with the most robots are South Korea, Japan and Germany. Measured by the proportion of robot equipment per 100 workers, South Korea is 4.7%, while China is only 0.3%. However, Ni Yili believes that the Chinese government attaches great importance to the development of high-end manufacturing and intelligence, which is related to the rise in the spot market price of imported minerals; The market price of domestic ore is stable; The billet market was mixed; Coke spot market remains strong; The shipping market continues to decline, and it is believed that it will catch up in the next decade

in the future, people will inevitably be affected by this trend. People should keep an open mind, continue to learn, and adapt to the way of working together with robots or other automated scientific and technological facilities. Ni Yili said

The report also recognizes that such an evolution will bring great challenges to enterprises and governments, and how to provide appropriate training courses and supporting policies will be a difficult problem to be solved

the speed and degree of the development of automation technology depend on the multiple constraints of technical, economic and social factors. In terms of technology, although considerable progress has been made in recent years, artificial intelligence voice assistants such as Siri have also entered the level of mass consumption. The report points out that the improvement of machines' ability to understand natural language may be the starting point of the next stage of rapid development of automation technology. At present, it has become the leader of high-end military materials in China

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