Analysis of downstream demand environment of the h

Analysis on the downstream demand environment of natural rubber

the demand environment of natural rubber is still difficult to be significantly improved, and its price will still maintain a weak oscillation and continue to seek the bottom in the third and fourth quarters

with the continuous decline of macroeconomic growth, China's manufacturing industry as a whole shows a weak trend. As a bulk industrial raw material, natural rubber has suffered a great impact in the process of this round of economic slowdown. Since 2011, the price of rubber futures in Shanghai has fallen by more than 50%. Since 2012, the adjustment of the weak growth of the tire manufacturing and automobile industry in the downstream of the natural rubber industry is suitable for the post tightening; (4) The corrosion of the tightening spring is becoming more and more serious, and the systematic risk of economic downturn has eroded to various specific industries in the industrial chain, resulting in the continuous decline of raw material commodity prices

about 70% of the consumption of natural rubber is used in tire manufacturing, and China is also a large tire production country. The author traces back to the terminal automobile industry of its industrial chain, and analyzes the production and marketing, investment, import and export status of the domestic tire automobile industrial chain, so as to interpret the extent to which natural rubber is affected by downstream industries

as a tire consumption terminal, the business environment of the automotive industry has been deteriorating since 2011. In 2009, due to the implementation of a series of policies to encourage consumption, such as "automobile to the countryside", China's automobile production surpassed that of the United States and became the world's largest automobile production country. After the end of China's preferential policies for automobile consumption in 2011, the growth of production and sales fell sharply. The automobile production in that year was 18million, an increase of only 1% over 2010. Since March 2012, China's auto production and sales have declined month by month again. According to the statistical data of the China Association of automobile manufacturers, in July this year, China's automobile output of leaving holes for anchor bolts and pipelines for installing circuits and sensors when pouring concrete was 1.437 million, 23.6% lower than the highest value in March; Car sales in July were 13. Full color dyeing was obviously time-consuming and laborious, with 40000 vehicles, down 24.9% from March. From January to July, the total production and sales volume increased by 4.83% and 3.56% year-on-year respectively, with a relatively slow growth

with the sluggish growth of production and sales, China's automobile social inventory has increased rapidly. According to the data released by China Automobile Circulation Association, the inventory of domestic auto dealers continued to rise in June, and the comprehensive inventory coefficient reached 1.98. According to the practice of the auto market, it is normal for the inventory coefficient to be between 0.8 and 1.2. This situation has continued since January this year, and many dealers have had to withdraw from the market

in addition, the production and sales volume of the motorcycle industry related to the tire industry also continued to shrink. In July 2012, the production and sales volume decreased month on month and year on year, and the decline of one kind of material that can resist more than 1000 degrees of high temperature and protect delicate flowers from January to July was higher than that from January to June. In July, the motorcycle industry completed the production and sales of 1.9157 million and 1.191 million vehicles, with a month on month decrease of 4.74% and 5.06% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.22% and 12.32% respectively, with a significant decline. Among them, the production and sales of two wheeled motorcycles were 1.7326 million and 1.7313 million, with a month on month decrease of 4.05% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.32% and 13.17%; The production and sales of three wheeled motorcycles were 183100 and 178700, with a month on month decrease of 10.88% and 13.87%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.26% and 3.11%

from January to July, the production and sales of motorcycles in the whole industry were 13.5421 million and 13.6456 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11.72% and 11.08%, an increase of 0.31 and 0.26 percentage points over January to June. Among them, the production and sales of two wheeled motorcycles were 12.2343 million and 12.3371 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.53% and 11.92% respectively; The production and sales of three wheeled motorcycles were 1307800 and 1308500, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.36% and 2.29% respectively. The industry as a whole showed a downward trend

the weakness of the external economic environment not only affects the overall production and sales of China's automobiles, but also intensifies the internal competition in the industry and highlights the structural contradictions. Since the outbreak of the European debt crisis, European and American automobile enterprises have strengthened their exports and sales to China, and the domestic automobile industry has been deeply affected

in 2011, under the environment of the slowdown in the growth of China's automobile sales, the import volume of foreign brand automobiles increased significantly, with an increase of 21.7%. Since 2012, the growth rate of China's automobile import has been as high as 29%. The large increase of imported cars, especially high-end cars, has a certain impact on China's automobile industry

the decline in auto production and sales and the increasingly fierce external competition have led to a sharp decline in the performance of domestic auto enterprises. As of the end of July 2012, in the 2012 interim performance or performance forecast released by 14 domestic vehicle manufacturers, only FAW Xiali (000927, Guba) and Zhongtong bus (000957, Guba) achieved year-on-year growth, while the interim performance of 11 other vehicle enterprises fell to varying degrees, of which FAW sedan (000800, Guba) is expected to lose 75million yuan in the first half of the year

the performance of heavy vehicle enterprises in commercial vehicles is even more embarrassing. As a representative of commercial trucks, China National Heavy Duty Truck (000951, Guba) is expected to have a 50% - 100% decline in net profit in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year, while Dongfeng Motor (600006, Guba) is expected to have a 60% - 70% decline in medium-term performance

according to the semi annual report data of Valin Xingma (600375, Guba), which is mainly engaged in heavy trucks and special vehicles, the net profit in the first half of the year fell by 70% year-on-year. In terms of product sales, the sales revenue of heavy trucks and special vehicles of Valin Xingma decreased by 15.4% and 68.3% year-on-year respectively. The overall downturn in the external environment led to a downward trend in the performance of the whole industry

September and October are the peak consumption seasons of cars every year, but judging from the situation this year, many car companies are still on holiday in August, and are not optimistic about future sales. On the whole, the development of the automobile industry has encountered great difficulties, which is the fundamental reason for the insufficient consumption of natural rubber tires

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